Only 12% of signals reach the final target

Of 766 closed trades we have published since April 2026, 93 reached their third and final take-profit. That is 12.1%. Just under half — 48.6% — reached any take-profit at all.

We publish this because a three-tier take-profit system is usually sold on its furthest number. TP3 is the one in the marketing. It is also the one that happens least.

The full distribution

Every closed trade lands in exactly one of five outcomes. Here is where all 766 of them went:

1. TP1 — 172 trades, 22.5%. Average +17.5 pips.
2. TP2 — 107 trades, 14.0%. Average +28.4 pips.
3. TP3 — 93 trades, 12.1%. Average +46.6 pips.
4. Breakeven exit — 190 trades, 24.8%. Average +8.4 pips.
5. Stop loss — 204 trades, 26.6%. Average -15.8 pips.

The number that matters more

372 trades reached TP1. Of those, only 25% carried on to TP3. Three out of four trades that go your way stop somewhere short of the target the system was designed around.

That is not a criticism of three-tier systems — it is how they work. The distant target exists to catch the occasional large move, and those moves are rare by definition. The mistake is treating the headline reward-to-risk ratio, which is calculated against TP3, as the ratio you will actually earn. On our record the planned ratio is 1:2.5 and the realised one is 1:1.36.

What to do with this

If you take signals with three targets, the practical question is where you close. Three approaches, and what our distribution says about each:

1. Close everything at TP1. You convert 48.6% of trades into small wins and give up the 12.1% that would have run. Simple, and the most forgiving if you cannot watch the market.
2. Split the position across all three. You capture part of every outcome. This is what our published pip totals assume.
3. Hold everything for TP3. You are betting on a one-in-eight outcome and turning most of your winners back into breakevens or losses when they reverse. The distribution above says this is the worst of the three.

Whatever you choose, choose it before the trade rather than during it.

Check this yourself

These figures come from our own published record, which is open to everyone. Every trade above has a permanent page showing the entry, stop and targets recorded at the moment it fired, and the outcome recorded when it closed. Nothing is filtered out.

Browse the full record — or read why a headline win rate misleads and what a breakeven exit actually is.

Figures recomputed from the live record on every page load — 766 closed trades since 2026-04-20, current as of 14 September 2026. Check any of them on the results page. Past performance does not indicate future results.